引用本文:钟球海 ,黎新华, 张志方.一类非线性模型建模方法及其在铁路客流量预报上的应用[J].控制理论与应用,1985,2(1):103~111.[点击复制]
Zhong Qiuhai, Li Xinhua, Zhang Zhifang.A MODELING METHOD FOR A KIND OF NONLINEAR AND ITS APPLICATION IN FORECASTING THE RAILWAY PASSENGER FLOWRATE[J].Control Theory and Technology,1985,2(1):103~111.[点击复制]
一类非线性模型建模方法及其在铁路客流量预报上的应用
A MODELING METHOD FOR A KIND OF NONLINEAR AND ITS APPLICATION IN FORECASTING THE RAILWAY PASSENGER FLOWRATE
摘要点击 970  全文点击 472  投稿时间：1984-01-05  修订日期：1984-05-02
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DOI编号  
  1985,2(1):103-111
中文关键词  
英文关键词  
基金项目  
作者单位
钟球海 ,黎新华, 张志方 北京工业学院 
中文摘要
      本文概述了时序分析的非线性模型类，详细叙述了门槛自回归模型的建模思想和方法。对于铁路客流量数据进行了建模和预报，逐月预报1982年和1983年的准确度分别在91.9%和91.4%以上。这对于加强中国铁路管理的科学性有很大帮助。这个方法同样可以推广应用于其他具有周期性数据的业务部门。
英文摘要
      In this paper a variety of time series nonlinear models are introduced and the idea and modeling method of the threshold autoregression are discussed in detail. Using threshold autoregression, the railway passenger flowrate data are analysed and some forecasting are given. The monthly forecasting accuracy for 1982 and 1983 is greater than 91.9% and 91.4% respectively. This will be of great help in running China ‘s railway in a more scientific way. The method can also be applied to those fields in which periodic data often exist.