基于前景理论的实时路径选择模型(英文)

Prospect theory-based route choice model in dynamic route guidance system

中文关键词  前景理论  价值函数  路径选择模型  动态路径诱导

英文关键词  prospect theory  value function  route choice model  dynamic route guidance system

中文摘要

      动态路径诱导是解决交通拥堵问题行之有效的手段. 传统动态路径诱导系统中的路径选择模型依托期望效用理论, 实践表明这种以确定性的理论解决具有不确定性的交通问题的模型与出行者的实际行为之间存在明显的背离. 针对交通状况的复杂性、时变性、不确定性, 本文建立一种基于前景理论的路径选择模型, 该模型考虑了由于出行者的主观能动性而导致的非完全理性化的交通行为特征, 能够准确地描述不确定性交通条件下出行者的决策过程. 通过仿真实验对比基于前景理论与基于期望效用理论的路径选择模型给出的最优路径, 结果表明前景理论在描述出行者的路径选择行为时能够在一定程度上克服期望效用理论的不足, 可以较准确地刻画出行者在不确定性条件下的路径选择决策行为, 更接近于出行者的实际行为模式.

英文摘要

      Dynamic route guidance system (DRGS) is one of the most efficient solutions to the traffic jam. The traditional route choice models of DRGS are based on expected utility theory (EUT), which solves the uncertain traffic problems with certain method. It is proved that the sorts of these models are contrary to the individual’s actual behavior. To deal with the complexity, time variance, and uncertainty of traffic condition, this paper presents a route choice model based on prospect theory (PT). The proposed model takes the incomplete rationality of traffic behavior led by the traveler’s subjective initiative into account. The introduction of PT to DRGS can accurately describe the decision-making process under uncertainty. An experiment is given to compare the performance of the PT-based model with that of the EUT-based model. The results show that the prospect-theory-based model precisely describes the route choice decision making behavior. In a way, the proposed model, which gives a more realistic and reliable route that individual usually takes, overcomes the shortcomings of EUT in the description of route choice behavior.