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| Received:April 22, 2003Revised:December 09, 2003 |
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| Modeling the dynamic optimal advertising in stochastic condition |
| Rong DU, Qiying HU, Zhiqing MENG |
| (School of Economics and Management, Xidian Univenity, Xi' an Shaanxi 710071, China; College of Business and Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 201800, China; College of Business & Administration, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou Zhejiang 310032, China) |
| Abstract: |
| An effort to model the dynamic optimal advertising was made with the uncertainty of sales responses in consideration . The problem of dynamic advertising was depicted as a Markov decision process with two state variables. When a firm launches an advertising campaign, it may predict the probability that the campaign will obtain the sales reponse. This probability was chosen as one state variable. Cumulative sales volume was chosen as another state variable which varies randomly with advertising. The only decision variable was advertising expenditure. With these variables, a multi-stage Markov decision process model was formulated. On the basis of some propositions the model was analyzed. Some analytical results about the optimal strategy have been derived, and their practical implications have been explained. |
| Key words: Stochastic optimal model Advertising Markov decision process Optimal strategies |
